Avoiding the Retirement Bubble

We are building a very big and very dangerous bubble for ourselves. If (better yet, when) it pops, it may feel more like an explosion for many of us.

Here are a few simple statements that apply to those nations which had major increases in population following World War Two, the group we usually call the "baby boom". If any of them are news to you, then a quick search using Google, Yahoo or another search engine should offer you evidence of all of them, if needed.

  • The number of people reaching traditional retirement age is growing rapidly and will continue to for years to come.
  • If the trend continues, there will be fewer and fewer working people to support more and more retirees.
  • As a group, we are retiring at the same age as our parent's generation or earlier.
  • Our life spans have increased significantly in recent decades. Simply put, we are living longer.
  • Medical science (genetic engineering, stem cell research and a long list of others) will very likely extend our life spans even longer, increasing the time spent in traditional retirement and increasing the financial burden of traditional retirees.

We are in trouble. This cannot and will not lead to a successful traditional retirement for the majority of us. The numbers do not add up to success. We are in trouble as a society, but even more so if you are already retired or seriously planning for it, unless you break with tradition.

Do the Math

The problem roots from the difference between what I will call active income (income earned by salary, fees and other payments for work done by you) and passive income (income received from social security, a pension, investments, and other payments that do not require your work, but the work of others).

With active income, you have some influence over what you receive. Yes, I know, often you do not feel you have very much influence at all on your income, but you can work extra hours if overtime is paid, you can increase your productivity in the hopes of getting a salary increase or a promotion, you can look for a new job with a resume that shows you are currently employed and familiar with today's work world, and so forth. You do not control your income, but you influence it directly.

With passive income, you have little or no influence over what you receive. Politicians set your social security payments. Your employer directly influences your pension in a way you cannot. The pension plan may not be able to pay the planned amounts or it may go bankrupt. If so, there is nothing you can do about it directly. If you own stocks, they go up in value only if other people buy them. As tens of millions of people have learned in the last couple years or so, the value of your house is absolutely dependent on what someone else will pay you for it.

Traditional retirement is supposed to be a time in your life of financial independence, but it is really a time of increasing financial dependence.

If you retired in 1960 at 63, it was perfectly ordinary to die at 73. If you had started seriously saving money for your retirement so you would not depend solely on social security or a pension at age 43 (many start later), you have 20 years of active income to save for 10 years of retirement. Two years to save then for each year of retirement later.

Today, you can retire at 63 and expect to live to 83. Now you have 20 years of active income to save for 20 years of retirement. Only one year to save now for each year of retirement later.

But this is not the end of the story. Due to the rapid progress being made in the medical sciences, you are very, very likely to live to 93, whether you want to accept that or not at this time. It is extremely likely that you have 20 years of active income to save for 30 years of retirement. Only eight months to save now for one year of retirement later.

Worse yet, the odds of living to 103 are increasing constantly. If so, you now have 20 years to save for 40 years of retirement. Only six months to save now for one year of retirement later.

And remember, even this depends on beginning to save seriously for retirement no later than age 43. Many people do not and cannot start at that age.

The probability that you will get into serious financial trouble later, during traditional retirement, increases as life spans increase. You can very easily imagine having to find a job at an age when you never expected that you would need a job. But if you run short of passive income, you will have to look for new active income.

I have hired people for years due to positions I have held. I always look for someone who has a good work ethic and is up-to-date in their understanding of their field. I have had many retirees come to me, looking for a job because their retirement income has fallen or their retirement expenses are greater than they expected.

Hear me clearly, once you have been completely out of the work force for three years or more, doing nothing but "enjoying retirement", you are not very interesting to me as an employee. Too many retirees have come to me for jobs because they had to, not because they wanted to. I do not want to hire someone who bitterly regrets having to ask me for a job. I want to hire someone who is excited about working for me. I do not want to hire someone who has been out of touch with the work world and today's job requirements for years. Sure, he or she may know yesterday's job requirements perfectly, but yesterday is history. Every field is going through rapid change. If you do not keep up with your field, you will get behind and that is not what I am looking for in a job candidate. If that is true for someone who is out of the work world for three years, what if you come back after ten years of fifteen? You can guess. If you were in an employer's position, I think you would feel very much the same way.

Tens of millions of people, especially in the so-called "advanced" societies, are creating or already have created their very own retirement bubble. Oh, how it glistens! It hangs there in our mind's eye, so beautiful, so wonderful. But it is very, very delicate. The slightest problem and it can pop. Once it has popped, it cannot be put together again.

We are in trouble indeed. This cannot and will not lead to a successful traditional retirement for the majority of us. The numbers do not add up to success. We are in trouble as a society, but even more so if you are already retired or seriously planning for it, unless you break with tradition.

Enough bad news! How can we deal with this effectively and be happy? We can and must do something about this. For better news, click here



Copyright © all rights reserved - this site and all its contents 2004 Robert L. Adams. Powered by smartwebby.com