[Special announcement: Given the high level of interest expressed by visitors to the site and given that I am personally
concerned with retirement issues, I have created a completely separate site with more specific comments on this topic. If
retirement is an issue of concern to you, you may find it useful to visit Retirement
Wave.]
Here's a very old definition of retirement that still makes
sense. Retirement is the period in life immediately preceding
death.
Does that sound depressing? It shouldn't. Let's take a look
at it. Until well into the 20th century, it was reality. Most
people couldn't afford to stop being productive and just consume
for a couple decades before they died. Most of those who did
were forced to stop working due to frailty or illness; it
wasn't a matter of choice. That's still the case for much
of the world. However, the odds are very good that this is
not the case for you. Someone with a connection to the Internet
is likely to be someone who can consider retirement long before
they die. What many of us do not yet understand, but the next
generation will, is that we are setting ourselves up for a
personal disaster. We are living in today's world, but too
many of us are planning for yesterday's retirement. If you're
between 35 and 75, you are guinea pigs without knowing it.
Let me explain.
I'm 59 years old. When I was growing up as a teenager, it
was common for men to die in their late 60's and women in
their early 70's. Anyone who made it to 80 was considered
exceptional, 90 was awe-inspiring. That was then, this is
now.
Here's just one of many statistics I could mention. Right
now, the US Census Bureau reports that 26% of the people who
are 65 today can expect to live to 90. A similar situation
is true of other "wealthy" nations; in some the percentage
is already higher. That's a warning in itself, but there's
a problem with it. It assumes that there will be no major
medical breakthroughs in coming years that increase longevity.
These essays have to be short, but here are just a few thoughts
to consider before you decide to retire "early".
1) Medical science is not standing still, it's moving faster
than ever. And it will affect you directly. In the US alone,
there is a huge "baby boom"; people born following the end
of World War 2 through 1964. The oldest turns 59 in 2005.
Folks, it's a simple matter of economics. As this generation
ages, private enterprise will focus more and more on aging.
That's where tomorrow's big profits will be. Count on it.
The real medical breakthroughs are coming in the next few
years and onwards.
2) If you're 65 today, it will take you 25 years to get to
90. If you're 45, it will take you another 45 years and so
forth. Forget statistics for the total population. The average
adult reading this essay who has medical insurance, access
to medical facilities, and at least a secondary school education
must already assume that they will live to their mid-80's.
Given the first point above, in ten years, not 25 or 45, they
will likely expect to live to their mid-90's. In twenty years...you
get the idea.
3) Our retirement plans are reflections of those of our parents
or grandparents, depending on our age, but our chances of
living a long life are not. We're living in the 21st century
and planning a 20th century retirement. What is likely to
happen if we don't change our approach?
Here's one scenario, certainly not the worst. You retire at
65. You leave the regular work world and focus on your own
enjoyment: travel, visiting your children and grandchildren,
hobbies, and so forth. You assume you've saved enough to pay
for your retirement. You also assume, consciously or sub-consciously,
that you will die in your 80's, certainly by 90.
Ten years later, you're 75. The health sciences and the health
industry have been hard at work. You now are told that you can expect
to live to 95, very likely to 100. You panic. You never
expected that your savings would have to stretch that far.
You want income. Sorry. Your former professional field has
advanced and left you behind. You discover you're out-of-date.
You've been playing the role of "retiree" for so long, you
look and act "old", hardly good references for a worthwhile
job. Panic is replaced by fear, then anger, then depression.
Multiply this by millions of retirees. I'll leave it at that
for this essay.
To download a free copy of the full essay,
click here